NonFarm Payrolls


Nonfarm Payrolls rise by only 114,000 in July, confirming cooling labor market

US jobs report post-release checklist – August 2

NFP Actual, Consensus and Deviation Negative US Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 114,000 in July, falling short of the market expectation of 175,000 and coming in below June’s increase of 179,000.
NFP Revisions Negative The change in total Nonfarm Payroll employment for May was revised down by 2,000, and the change for June was revised down by 27,000, from 206,000 to 179,000.
Unemployment rate Negative The US unemployment rate edged higher to 4.3% in July from 4.1% in June. This reading came in above the market forecast of 4.1%.
Labor Force Participation Rate Neutral The labor force participation rate improved slightly to 62.7% from 62.6%.
Average Hourly Earnings Negative Wage inflation, as measured by the change in Average Hourly Earnings, softened to 3.6% on a yearly basis in July from 3.8% in June.

 

US jobs report pre-release checklist – August 2

Previous Non-Farm Payrolls  NeutralNonfarm Payrolls increased by 206,000 in June, down from the 218,000 increase (revised from 272,000) seen a month earlier but above the market expectations of 190,000.  
Challenger Job Cuts PositiveUS-based employers announced 25,885 job cuts in July. This print followed 48,786 job cuts in June.
Initial Jobless Claims   NegativeThe number of people filing for unemployment benefits rose to 249,000 in the week ending July 27, marking the highest reading since August 2023.
Continuing Jobless Claims   NegativeThe total number of people receiving unemployment benefits continued to rise throughout July and stood at 1.87 million at the end of the month.
ISM Services PMI  NeutralThe data will be released on Monday, August 5.
ISM Manufacturing PMI   NegativeThe Employment Index of the ISM Manufacturing PMI survey declined sharply to 43.4 in July from 49.3 in June, showing that the number of employed in the manufacturing sector continued to fall at an accelerating pace.
University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index  NeutralThe University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index edged lower to 66.4 in July.
Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index  PositiveThe Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index improved to 100.3 in July, noting consumers remain relatively positive about the labor market.
ADP Employment Report  NegativeADP’s measure of private-sector employment increased by 122,000 in July, lower than the 155,000 increase (revised from 150,000) registered in June and analysts’ estimate of 150,000.
JOLTS Job Openings  NeutralJob openings on the last business day of June stood at 8.18 million, down from 8.23 million in May. This data is lagging as the NFP report is for July and the latest job openings data refers to June.

 

June US JOBS REPORT REVIEW


May US JOBS REPORT REVIEW


April US JOBS REPORT REVIEW




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BIG PICTURE

The NFP report: The most important economic indicator for the US

NFP Definition

NonFarm Payrolls report measures the number of jobs added or lost in the US economy over the last month. It is released usually on the first Friday of each month, at 8:30 EST. It is published by the US Department of Labor.

This report is important because the US is the largest economy in the world and its currency (US Dollar) is the global reserve currency. The many economies peg (tie) their currency's value to the reserve currency, many commodities such as gold and oil are priced in terms of the reserve currency and the local economy's debt is priced in terms of its own currency.

The NFP report, because of its importance to the reserve currency, tends to move all markets: currencies, equities, treasuries, interest rates and also commodities. It does it so immediately after the release of the economic data and sometimes so dramatically.

US Departament of Labor

The mission of the DOL is to assure the prosperity of the wage earners, job seekers which includes more than 10 million employers and 125 million workers in the USA. 180 federal laws and several federal regulations are the key of the Departament Labor promotion of benefits and rights.

To Trade...

Those who advocate trading NFP releases base their advice on a previous preparation and some fundamental research. The elaboration of some macroeconomical analysis is essential for successful trading.

This research includes averages of past headline NFP numbers, Weekly Jobless Claims, ISM Industry Data reports or other employment reports as the ADP or the Challenger. Tracking these events is fundamental on the preparation of the trades to set up just after the release. You can check all this data on FXStreet Economic Calendar: ADP Report, Initial Jobless Claims, ISM Industry Data.

... Or Not to Trade

A lot more skeptical on the benefits of trading the event, as you can read in his article “Step aside the NonFarm Payrolls release”, Adrián Aquaro, President at Trader College, says its importance has decreased a little bit lately:

“Even if the impact has diminished gradually over time, still generates huge attention on the markets and it normally drives important monthly trends. Lately another event (the Fed Monetary Policy Meetings) has been driving similar attention, thanks mainly to the Interest Rates being at 0%.”

What is a NonFarm Payrolls Forecast?

A NonFarm Payrolls Forecast is some sentiment-based piece of content that tries to predict what the NFP numbers will be and what impact will they have on the markets. In this page, you'll find some articles and tools that will help you to understand which could be the outlook for ADP Report, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, Labor Force Participation Rate and some other important economic indicators.

The ADP (National Employment Report) is an estimation of nonfarm employment which is based on a survey of thousands of private sector businesses. One of the biggest differences between NFP data and ADP data is the sample and methodology of the study. ADP Jobs Report could show us an anticipation of the NFP's trends. Some outlooks are mainly based on the Jobs Report, in past data and in other related job indicators like Initial/Continuing Jobless Claims.